Black voters in Virginia are turning out at a pace that could set a modern record, according to early voting data analyzed ahead of the November 3 midterm election. Radio IQ reporter Brad Kutner reports that Black turnout so far is running ahead of both the 2022 midterms and the 2025 governor’s race.

That 2025 race ended with Abigail Spanberger winning the governorship by 15 points. This year’s surge comes on top of it.

The Data Behind the Surge

Chaz Nuttycombe, who leads the election data group State Navigate, found that turnout gains grow as the share of Black residents in a precinct grows. The pattern is strongest in Virginia’s competitive congressional districts.

“The Blacker the precinct in Virginia, the higher the turnout compared to 2025,” Nuttycombe wrote in an October 27 post. He added that the state could see “the highest share of the Black vote in a Virginia election in modern history.”

One example stands out. In Franklin City, a precinct that is about 80% Black has cast twice as many votes so far as it had at the same point in the comparison period.

What Is Driving Voters

Wes Bellemy, a political science professor at Virginia State University, pointed to Question 3 on the ballot. The constitutional amendment would end Virginia’s lifetime ban on voting for people with felony convictions, restoring their rights automatically upon release from prison, according to Ballotpedia.

Bellemy also cited the Black middle class, many of whom hold federal jobs affected by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts.

Organizers are leaning in. LaKeisha Cook of the nonpartisan Virginia Interfaith Center for Public Policy hosted a get-out-the-vote event with music and a fish fry at Hickory Hill Community Center in Richmond’s Southside. “There is some real excitement and energy and momentum that we’re feeling,” Cook said.

In-person early voting in Virginia ends October 31.

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